UK Parliament Library publishes Iran 2026 outlook briefing

12 January 2026

The House of Commons Library has published an Iran briefing which looks at how sanctions policy in recent years may impact Iran in 2026. The briefing says:

• Protests in Iran began in December 2025. In response to the violent suppression of protests in 2022 the UK added 8 people to its Iran sanctions list.

• In 2025, the World Bank said Iran’s GDP is projected to contract by 2.3% in 2026, which was attributed to the effect of international sanctions on Iran, including the reimposition of UN sanctions on Iran in September 2025.

• The UN sanctions were previously suspended by the 2015 Iran nuclear deal. They came back into force after a snapback procedure was triggered by the UK, France, and Germany, who cited Iran’s “significant non-performance” with the nuclear deal.

• The restored UN sanctions target Iran’s nuclear and missile production. The EU, UK and US have imposed wider sanctions on the Iranian economy and its nuclear and missile programmes.

• How far these sanctions will be adhered to is uncertain. Russia does not recognise the restored UN sanctions and China has continued to purchase Iranian oil.

• Iran’s cooperation with Venezuela to offset sanctions will be challenged following the capture of Nicolás Maduro by the US in January 2026. These ties are represented by the Bella 1 vessel, which was intercepted by the US in January 2026.

See our Iran pages for details on UK, EU and US sanctions on Iran. All parliamentary briefings are on our UK legislative materials page.